Should You Buy A House Now Or Wait Until 2024?
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A jumbo loan is a type of mortgage loan that’s used to finance loans that exceed the conforming loan limit. In the United States, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) sets loan limits for conforming loans each year.
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If you’ve been house-hunting in recent years, you’ve really been through it. Maybe you were waiting out the market, hoping the rocketing prices would start to flatten. Now, of course, they have — but between 2021 and 2022, mortgage rates have more than doubled, from less than 3 percent to more than 7 percent.
If you are renting and trying to save for a down-payment, the cost of your rental has likely increased as well.
Sellers who are sitting on low mortgage rates are not listing their homes for sale and supply shortages, cost of land, and cost of lending, along with higher labor and building costs have slowed down new construction.
All these factors contribute to a continued shortage of desirable inventory and home prices are staying propped up and not decreasing as one would expect.
Buyers need to adjust their expectations…Every buyer needs to do a gut check on how much house they can afford now. That might seem daunting, but higher mortgage rates don’t have to derail your dream of buying a home. In fact, historically, today’s rates are not considered particularly high.
Review your Budget: When you review your budget, keep in mind that newly built homes typically come with builder and manufacturer warranties and new energy-efficient appliances. Those advantages of a new home can lower your monthly housing costs. That’s especially true if you currently own an older home that needs repairs and has inefficient appliances.
Raise More Cash: Another option to buy a home with a higher rate is to spend more cash up-front. You can use cash to increase your down payment as a percentage of your loan amount, pay for builder upgrades in cash, or buy down your loan’s interest rate. You should work with your lender on the best use of your cash to achieve the lowest ongoing expenses to home ownership.
Evaluate Loan Options: A third strategy is to get a hybrid loan. This type of mortgage has a fixed rate that resets at the end of a specified period and is then fixed or adjustable for the remainder of the term. An example is a 7/1 hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). This type of loan has a lower fixed rate for the first seven years. After that, the rate is adjusted annually (that’s the “1” part) for the remainder of the 30-year term.
Hybrid loans can be more affordable since the initial rate is usually lower. But there’s a risk: If you don’t refinance or sell your home before the rate resets, your payment could rise significantly for the rest of the term. If you can’t afford the higher payment, you could lose your home.
Rethink Your Needs and Wants: Buying a less costly home is another way to cope with higher rates. Less costly doesn’t have to mean a home you don’t like or that doesn’t fit your needs.
Reconsider Your Timing: Interest rates fluctuate, sometimes dramatically, over time. If you postpone buying a home, rates might be lower in the future, making the home you want more affordable. Or they could be higher, putting the home you want further out of reach. Experts are predicting the latter. The question for homebuyers is whether waiting and hoping makes sense. The answer is never as clear as a crystal ball.
Experts recently polled project average 30-year mortgage rates to fall between 5-9.31%in 2023. No one is expecting a move downward in the next 5 years. Several factors could lead to unexpected rate movements in the coming year.
Owning a home has certain benefits that renting doesn’t offer. Renting means no control over future [home price or interest rate] increases, no accumulation of equity through price appreciation, no tax deduction for property taxes and mortgage interest if you itemize your deductions, and no benefit for improvements you make to the property. Waiting to buy while you hope rates move lower means forgoing those benefits.
The lost opportunity of not buying due to a fear of higher rates far outweighs the benefits of homeownership. It’s best to take advantage of what the rates are today and build equity sooner rather than later.
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Nationally, expect slower housing price appreciation, easing inflation and rising interest rates in 2022, according to a survey of more than 20 top U.S. economic and housing experts by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). “Overall, survey participants believe we’ll see the housing market and broader economy normalize next year,” Yun said. “Though forecasted to rise 4%, inflation will decelerate after hefty gains in 2021, while home price increases are also expected to ease with an annual appreciation of less than 6%. Slowing price growth will partly be the consequence of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.”
Fed boosts to interest rates do tend to move rates higher on longer-term loans, such as 30-year mortgages. Yun expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to increase to 3.5% as the Fed raises interest rates to control inflation but noted this is lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 4%.
In South Florida Home prices are projected to continue to grow, but slower than the past year. “We don’t expect to see the same price appreciation we had last year, though we don’t expect to see a decline in pricing,” said Eli Beracha, director of the Hollo School of Real Estate at Florida International University. A Realtor.com forecast predicts that South Florida housing prices may rise almost 6% over the next year, while a Zillow forecast predicts that home price appreciation could shoot up by 15%.
A few factors are going to cause slower price growth: more inventory as sellers try to capitalize on the hot market, new developments hitting the market and an increase in mortgage interest rates. Demand from foreign and out-of-state buyers will continue to drive South Florida’s housing market, but experts also expect new inventory to alleviate some of the pressure that has been fueling the pandemic-era housing boom.
Experts say the market will still favor sellers, as demand and limited inventory will keep the balance in their favor. Bidding wars and multiple offers on homes will probably still be a common.
The supply chain issues, and lack of labor will continue to lead to increased construction costs and thus higher prices for buyers.
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